Technology in 2012

The theme for laptops in 2012: Ultrabooks

2012 is here and before we get too far into the year, I wanted to make some predictions/trends within the technology industry to look out for over the next twelve months.

• True 4G finally arrives. The next time you buy a smartphone, make sure that the phone connects to an LTE network, as the LTE technology standard is designed to be true 4G. Verizon is the only carrier currently offering this, with AT&T to follow soon and Sprint following up at the end of the year. T-Mobile has no plans to adopt LTE, which is one reason they sought to merge with AT&T.
• DVDs begin its decline. Although there was much criticism when Netflix tried to spin-off and eventually sell its DVD business, the truth is that Netflix simply moved slightly before the market was ready; but we really are witnessing the of the physical media era. Not even Blu-Ray can save the studios, as major companies such as Microsoft, Apple or PC manufactures are not adopting the closed standard like they did with the DVD.
• The next iPhone will NOT be called the iPhone 5. The iPhone 4S represents the fifth iteration of the iPhone, so it would make no sense for the sixth version of the iPhone to be called the iPhone 5. If I had to bet, I would say that the next iPhone announced in September will be called the iPhone 4G or simply the iPhone. The problem with iPhone 4G is that this is a US-centric approach since other countries have not adopted LTE yet, but since Apple is a US company, I don’t see this being too much of a problem.
• Laptops are finally mobile. Powerful computing and netbooks/tablets had a child together in 2011, and the baby will finally grow up in 2012. Termed Ultrabooks, these are light, thin, fast, beautiful computers heavily influenced by the MacBook Air. Ultrabooks are extremely fast due to the mainstream use of SSDs, are thin since most lack DVD drives and have all-day battery life due to low power consumption and larger batteries. If you plan a buying a laptop in 2012, you would be wise to pick up one of the plethora amounts of Ultrabooks.
• Facebook peaks. Facebook will finally IPO this year, and this will likely be the biggest Technology related event of the year. The media may turn this into the largest Web IPO in history – even bigger than Google in 2004. Unfortunately, I believe that the future growth of Facebook is bleak, as it already has nearly a billion users and has already saturated the United States. One would think that Facebook could do well in emerging markets, but China has already blocked Facebook and India is thinking about doing the same. What does this mean? The potential for Facebook isn’t great, and most people have not responded when Web companies have made moves to monetize. When the early adaptors to Facebook begin to move away (possibly in 2012), we may begin to see the gradual decline of this seemingly ubiquitous service.

Battery life on my HP Folio 13.

These are my observations and thoughts for the Technology industry in 2012. Let’s see how many come true. See you back at this post in January 2013!