The theme for laptops in 2012: Ultrabooks

2012 is here and before we get too far into the year, I wanted to make some predictions/trends within the technology industry to look out for over the next twelve months.

• True 4G finally arrives. The next time you buy a smartphone, make sure that the phone connects to an LTE network, as the LTE technology standard is designed to be true 4G. Verizon is the only carrier currently offering this, with AT&T to follow soon and Sprint following up at the end of the year. T-Mobile has no plans to adopt LTE, which is one reason they sought to merge with AT&T.
• DVDs begin its decline. Although there was much criticism when Netflix tried to spin-off and eventually sell its DVD business, the truth is that Netflix simply moved slightly before the market was ready; but we really are witnessing the of the physical media era. Not even Blu-Ray can save the studios, as major companies such as Microsoft, Apple or PC manufactures are not adopting the closed standard like they did with the DVD.
• The next iPhone will NOT be called the iPhone 5. The iPhone 4S represents the fifth iteration of the iPhone, so it would make no sense for the sixth version of the iPhone to be called the iPhone 5. If I had to bet, I would say that the next iPhone announced in September will be called the iPhone 4G or simply the iPhone. The problem with iPhone 4G is that this is a US-centric approach since other countries have not adopted LTE yet, but since Apple is a US company, I don’t see this being too much of a problem.
• Laptops are finally mobile. Powerful computing and netbooks/tablets had a child together in 2011, and the baby will finally grow up in 2012. Termed Ultrabooks, these are light, thin, fast, beautiful computers heavily influenced by the MacBook Air. Ultrabooks are extremely fast due to the mainstream use of SSDs, are thin since most lack DVD drives and have all-day battery life due to low power consumption and larger batteries. If you plan a buying a laptop in 2012, you would be wise to pick up one of the plethora amounts of Ultrabooks.
• Facebook peaks. Facebook will finally IPO this year, and this will likely be the biggest Technology related event of the year. The media may turn this into the largest Web IPO in history – even bigger than Google in 2004. Unfortunately, I believe that the future growth of Facebook is bleak, as it already has nearly a billion users and has already saturated the United States. One would think that Facebook could do well in emerging markets, but China has already blocked Facebook and India is thinking about doing the same. What does this mean? The potential for Facebook isn’t great, and most people have not responded when Web companies have made moves to monetize. When the early adaptors to Facebook begin to move away (possibly in 2012), we may begin to see the gradual decline of this seemingly ubiquitous service.

Battery life on my HP Folio 13.

These are my observations and thoughts for the Technology industry in 2012. Let’s see how many come true. See you back at this post in January 2013!

The book referenced in this post.

One of my goals for the New Year is to read more. But before I dive into my next book (either Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics by Yasheng Huang or Lords of Strategy by Walter Kiechel in case you wanted to follow along), I wanted to do a final reflection on the last volume I read at the end of 2011: Steve Jobs by Walter Isaacson. Normally, I am skeptical about biographies published before or shortly after the subject has left us, as there will inevitably be a lot of spin and control done to ensure “accuracy” in the eyes of the source. You may as well call these biographies autobiographies, as the author must satisfy the subject in addition to his audience. With that said, I took away a few lessons from the novel which I’d like to share.

Steve Jobs on India.

While most people know of Steve’s activities and accomplishments in his later years, few are aware of his deeds during his youth. Some curious decisions that Jobs made as a young adult include the recreational use of hallucinogens such as LSD, turning down a near-certain scholarship from Stanford for Reed College and deciding to prioritize a pursuit in Eastern spirituality. In fact, this passion led Jobs from dropping out of Reed College to living in India for over seven months. Steve later said that it wasn’t until he lived in India did he begin to have a better understanding of Western culture. When reflecting on India, Steve said “Coming back to America was, for me, much more of a culture shock that going to India. The people in [India] don’t use their intellect like we do, they use their intuition instead, and their intuition is far more developed than in the rest of the world. Intuition is a very powerful thing, more powerful than intellect, in my opinion. That’s had a big impact on my work.” From this, and my own experience, I believe that living abroad fundamentally changes people for the better and is something that should be more strongly emphasized in the American education system.

Steve's creation after he founded NeXT.

A famous anecdote from Steve’s life was his firing from Apple and how he ended up back as CEO roughly a decade later. What few people realize is that between his firing in 1986 and his reintegration with the company in 1996, Steve’s vision for Apple had not changed at all. Steve had always believed that Apple should be “a wonderful consumer products company.” In 1986, the Board of Directors at Apple did not recognize Steve’s dream and ability. But despite his ousting, Steve continued to follow his passion by starting up another electronics company: NeXT. Although he lost his job, he refused to give up on his career, which opened the opportunity for Apple to buy NeXT and allowed Steve to go back to Apple. The truth is that talent evaluators are human. And humans, by nature, are flawed and regularly miscalculate. Steve’s abilities as a CEO were belittled in 1986, some would say due to his unpleasant personality and difficult management styles. But Steve did not give up and continued to invest in his core competencies; which eventually led to directing Apple to the largest company in the world.

Steve's famous closing line.

Steve took a number of big decisions in his lifetime – this much is obvious. From creating the Lisa, to being a big part of Pixar, the list of risks that Steve took is extensive. The biggest surprise of this isn’t so much that he made huge decisions, but rather how nonchalant he made the process seem. In fact, Steve had a more difficult time deciding on what kind of dryer to use for his house than figuring out what his next career move was going to be. This suggests to me that a big decision does not have to be a big deal. Meaning, you don’t need to proportion your resources into making decisions based on the scale of ramifications for your decision. If you have a big opportunity, sitting around overanalyzing the outcomes isn’t always the best idea – the optimal timing to execute the opportunity may pass you by. Instead, don’t shy from risks, since risk and reward as we know it are generally positively correlated.

Words to live by.

Well, time to move on from this book to the next. Thanks for reading!

A new friend I made in Beijing!

I love New Year’s. While there is admittedly little literal significance between December 31^st and January 1^st, the symbolism it represents is quite momentous. New Year’s represents a unified moment in time when the entire world figuratively writes the concluding sentence on its most recent chapter, and together turns the page to begin scripting the next segment of history. And so, as we stand between the end of another chaotic holiday season and the resumption of our academic and professional careers, I’d like to spend time reflecting on three observations I made in 2011, and on professing three resolutions I have established for 2012 – in hopes that it may inspire you as much as I believe this will motivate me.

I found a Transformer in China!

Within each of us, there is a certain threshold of risk tolerance we have established through a combination of mentoring, shared stories and personal experiences. While this is a basic survival instinct and is an understandable part of human nature, I have found that oftentimes, we set this baseline at a level far lower than it needs to be. Maybe it’s because we place too much weight in our risk tolerance algorithm on the variables of fear of failure and rejection, or maybe it’s because we find ourselves desiring comfort and stability over fulfillment and accomplishment. Whatever the reason, I have found that with proper preparation and desire, most people are able to succeed at a greater rate than they themselves believe.

Fireworks in Hawaii!

Everything we intake from this world contains a bias. Every piece of data and message we receive has a motivation when delivered from the origin. Therefore, it can be important to look beyond the actual continued idea itself, and at the source of the communication. This, along with other variables, makes defining the concept of “truth” next to impossible. The only “truth” you can rely on is that there is another side and perspective to the situation or story of interest. As a consequence, it’s important to remain humble and objective when conversing and exchanging ideas with others.

Cool art, also found in Beijing.

As I continue to age, I have (regrettably) found that the quantity of my close friends has decreased. This is understandable, as we succumb to the responsibilities and scheduling of maturity. However, I have noticed that the opportunities to increase the quality of relationships with close friends have increased. As we blossom into established individuals, we find that time has enabled us to increase the diversity of our experiences, opportunities and mindset in life. I have found that the further cultivation of these friendships have derived some of the most rewarding experiences in recent times. I hope to perpetuate this movement in the coming years.

One of my favorite things to see. It means I'm home. (:

And finally, what would the New Year experience be without the infamous New Year’s Resolutions? Simultaneously one of the most inspirational and potentially depressing aspects of society, the New Year’s Resolution is as part of New Year’s as presents are to Christmas. This year, I have three simple goals: to read more, write more and increase language ability. For accountability sake, I am establishing a baseline of one book a month, a composition biweekly and a continuous, conscious effort to increase my Chinese, programming and music ability. But, as with everything else in life, actions speak louder than words. I hope you can stick to your resolution(s) and Happy 2012!